Weekly Editorial
Lead Time Lies
Written By Rob Kirkbride, Editor-in-Chief, OI Publications • April 13, 2026

I always enjoy attending the INDEAL Champion Conference for many reasons, but mostly because I get a chance to engage with dealers. At the event, I was able to unofficially poll them about issues that are on their minds. And most, if not all, mentioned the persistent problem of industry lead times and how they seem to be inexplicably growing longer and longer.
If that wasn’t bad enough, the dealers I spoke to at the conference said manufacturers and their salespeople are lying to them about lead times; promising timelines that they know they cannot meet simply to secure the job. I’m going to take the names out to protect the companies (even though I probably shouldn’t), but one dealer said: “We expect it from (a small company not known for their quality), but we are getting the same thing from (a major brand known for quality and customer service).”
Blatantly lying to a dealer about lead times might work short-term to secure a project, but it is not a successful long-term strategy for growing your business. Dealers remember who burned them and even aligned dealers have choices these days.
We thought we’d seen the worst of this lead time lying during the initial post-pandemic scramble. We were wrong. As we move deeper into 2026, the “lead time” has shifted from a logistical hurdle to a full-blown existential crisis for the dealer community.
Why is it so important that manufacturers and their salespeople honestly keep dealers apprised of their shipping dates? An office furniture dealer lives on the margin between a manufacturer’s promise and a customer’s expectation. When a lead time for a sofa or workstation jumps from six weeks to 16 weeks, the dealer is the one caught in the crossfire.
Dealers are upset because they are being forced to act as shock absorbers for a supply chain that keeps failing them. They are the ones sitting in uncomfortable, high-stakes meetings with facility managers, explaining why a Fortune 500 company’s new headquarters has 400 employees moving in next Monday, but only 50 chairs to sit on.
Manufacturers shouldn’t get 100% of the blame. They are relying on less-than-perfect supply chains themselves. They face skyrocketing prices for things like fuel and transportation and parts suppliers who are under incredible pressure themselves. I hate to be cliche and call it a “perfect storm,” but it really is.
Secondary factors are adding to the woe as well.
Designers are specifying more “resimercial” products and highly customized pieces that don’t roll off a standard assembly line. One missing specialized bracket from an overseas sub-supplier can hold up a $500,000 order for months. Even if all the components fall into place, many manufacturers are struggling to find skilled upholsterers and CNC operators. There aren’t enough hands to turn the components into finished goods.
Perhaps the biggest reason for the rising anger is financial volatility. In a world of long lead times, the price quoted at the time of the bid is rarely the price at the time of delivery. Dealers are getting hit with surcharges and price escalations mid-project. When a lead time stretches to six months, the cost of the raw aluminum in those table legs might have spiked 15% in the interim. Dealers are often left eating those costs just to keep the relationship alive.
There is also a growing sense of frustration with the manufacturers. Dealers feel that some brands are over-promising to win the bid, knowing full well the factory floor can’t meet the date. This “phantom inventory” and “sliding ship date” culture has eroded the trust between the two most important links in the office furniture chain.
Most dealers and their designers understand these macroeconomic issues and are willing to give manufacturers a bit of grace, but the manufacturers must be honest with them about lead times. On the flip side, dealers need to manage their customers’ expectations. Many customers have unreasonable expectations about furniture delivery schedules. It’s a dealer’s job to manage those expectations and explain that they are not buying from Amazon.
A little bit of communication (in both directions) would go a long way toward solving these problems and improving the relationship between dealers and manufacturers, so get talking to each other.
In the meantime, we are going to dig further into this issue and write more about it
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