There’s far too much that happens at the BIFMA 360 Conference to cover in a single story, so I thought I would break a few interesting topics down in the Insider over the next few weeks. This week, I’m going to talk about the always-interesting economic speakers at the event. This year’s economic speaker was Todd Buchholz, CEO of Sproglit. His presentation focused on how demographics, technology and a populist bias against globalization are reshaping the economy, and what business owners and operators can do about it.

They are important topics for every industry, but especially so for commercial interiors, which is also facing an existential crisis over office occupancy and use and tariffs. If you are looking for answers from Buchholz, you won’t find them here, but I will outline his view of the economy and how that might affect our industry.

He called these “complicated economic times” unpredictable and said we are living in the “Age of Anxiety.” Society’s inability to to have civil discourse is beginning to affect the economy, he added. “When you have thoughts that everything is bad, you make bad economic decisions,” said Buchholz.

Buchholz called President Donald Trump the “Developer in Chief” who has always pushed for low interest rates. His early policy actions on tariffs, immigration, more drilling for oil and other natural resources, unwinding regulations and cutting government spending will have profound effects on the economy, but it is too early to tell how.

“It is too early to tell who is going to be hurt in these trade wars,” he said, but generally, it is the consumer who feels the brunt of cost, often through inflated prices.

Buchholz explained how inflation rose so much under the last administration and began in President Donald Trump’s first term in office. As the pandemic ravaged the economy, the government pumped billions of dollars into it, including through subsidy checks sent to the American people. Before leaving office, he said Trump sent a round of stimulus checks to taxpayers, not wanting incoming President Joseph Biden to get credit for the “gift.” When Biden took office, not wanting Trump to be remembered as the one who sent out checks, delivered another round of stimulus checks.

“Stimulus went on too long,” said Buchholz. “2020 was not a recession, it was a cessation.”

Stimulus money flooded the economy and caused prices to rise, he said. It created other issues in the economy as well, including several high-profile strikes. It caused what Buchholz called the “homebody economy” and companies like cruise lines nearly went bankrupt. When the money flooded in, these same companies were inundated with business. Cruise lines are now operating near capacity.

The office market was profoundly affected by the pandemic and aftermath as well, he said. The badge swipe rate in Washington, D.C. remains at about 36%, Buchholz added. And a majority of those sent to work at home want to keep working remotely.

The job market is in decent shape, he said. “The question is: Can consumers hang on?” and keep spending. So far, they are, which is good news for the economy. The economy remains relatively strong, but it is too early to tell whether Trump is serious about tariffs or if he is simply trying to force America’s trading partners to the negotiating table. Will the wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue or will Trump end both as he promised? Will Trump’s immigration policies hurt American industries or create new factories (and jobs) in the U.S.? Is the dismantling of the federal government workforce a long-overdue fix to rampant spending or will it cause more chaos in Washington?

The answer to those questions will likely determine how the economy performs in the future, and with it, the commercial interiors industry.